The Potential Consequences of a Years-long U.S. Government Shutdown

The U.S. government shutdown has been a topic of intense debate and concern in recent years. While extended shutdowns have been rare, the possibility of such an event recurring is not entirely off the table. If the U.S. government were to remain shut down for a year, the consequences would be significant and far-reaching.

Breaking Points in a Shutdown

The air traffic control system and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) are often cited as critical sectors that could potentially force a resolution. Shutting down a major airport could lead to significant political pressure, with Congress likely voting for funding quickly to avoid further disruption.

An even more critical breaking point would be the complete shutdown of commercial air travel, which could happen if TSA employees were to stay home. This scenario would undoubtedly be a strong motivator for Congress to pass a funding bill, as the economic and social repercussions would be overwhelming.

The 2009 Federal Debt Ceiling Crisis

One of the most significant potential consequences of a year-long shutdown would be the collision of the U.S. hitting its federal debt ceiling in March 2019. This would mean that Congress would have to take action to lift the debt ceiling or face a government shutdown and the default on debt payments.

The impact of such an event would be severe. A default on debt payments would be unprecedented, leading to a financial crisis that would dwarf the 2008 financial crisis. Credit ratings of the U.S. would crash, making borrowing extremely expensive. The budget and tax system would need radical overhauls to reduce the deficit, requiring significant compromise and statesmanship. Defense and entitlement programs, considered sacred cows, would likely face painful cuts, with both sides likely to strongly object.

The Inevitability of a Settlement

Despite the political gridlock, the inevitability of a resolution to a prolonged shutdown cannot be ignored. There are several key factors that will ultimately force a settlement.

Food Stamps and Social Security: February food stamps were paid early, but there will be no food stamps in March. Social Security payments, which are currently funded through September, will also run out. The inability to provide these essential programs will likely bring about political pressure to reopen the government. Political Sensitivity: Political parties often find it difficult to stand on principle when faced with direct suffering. Once food stamps disappear, it is likely that political pressure will mount. Additionally, the storming of Congress by millions of Social Security recipients would be an unignorable event. Practicality of Shutdown: Allowing government workers to go unpaid for an extended period would eventually lead to a crisis. Once the impact of a prolonged shutdown reaches the American public, political leaders would be forced to act.

In the end, the political landscape in the U.S. is such that it is unlikely that a shutdown could last for an entire year. While the likelihood and specific timeline are uncertain, the long-term consequences of such a shutdown are clear. Financial instability, political upheaval, and social unrest are just a few of the potential consequences.

The challenge remains for both parties to find common ground and ensure the stability of the U.S. government and economy. Delaying a resolution can have serious and far-reaching effects, and the political climate suggests that a resolution will eventually be reached before complete chaos ensues.